How I See It

I read a couple articles and looked at a couple polls this morning before going running. I also saw a bit of a campaign appearance by Tester, who holds an outside-the-margin-of-error lead in his race to unseat Burns in Montana. When this heavy-set man with a flat top said "I'm one of you", I believed it, and I'm guessing most in the audience did, too. Santorum also seems to be a goner. I held out hope for him as recently as a week ago, but I just don't think it's going to happen. With a little more than a month to go, barring the proverbial gaffe, unforeseen event or startling revelation, I think the GOP should prepare to lose two seats for sure (Nominally, three, if you count Rhode Island. But I say 'good riddance' to Chaffee, and shame on the GOP for running so hard against the more conservative Laffey in the primary.)
Then there is Ohio and Missouri. While Brown's lead on DeWine is less than half of Casey's on Santorum, Ohio's reported climate for republicans makes that seat look like a decent bet to change hands, and to an avowed hard-left liberal, no less. The true remaining toss-up I think is Missouri. Talent has less than a percentage point lead (www.realclearpolitics.com) over McCaskill, but I wouldn't be surprised if he pulled that one off.
The only possible GOP pickup looks to be in New Jersey, and look what it takes to accomplish that! I think Kean is benefiting from those folks' weariness for all that voting democratic has brought them. Hopes look to be dimming, if only slightly, for McGavick in Washington, Kennedy in Minnesota and Steele in Maryland (I have more hope for the latter than either of the former.) Right now, I'm thinking the Senate will look like this in January: 52R, 46D, 2I. (My gut also tells me the GOP will hold the House. What kind of defeat/victory the right/left will see that as remains to be seen.)